In dense cities, a growing share of adults do not own a car and do not intend to. The trend is clearest among younger residents and it is not primarily about being unable to afford one.
The reasons
Cost, first – not the purchase but the ongoing expense of parking, insurance, maintenance and fuel for a vehicle that sits idle most of the time.
Alternatives, second. Ride-hailing, car-sharing, delivery, and transit that is good enough for daily needs. Access without ownership.
And preference. A generation that grew up with the alternatives does not see a car as a default possession the way previous ones did.
What this means for manufacturers
The urban market shrinks. The rural and suburban markets, where a car is still necessary, remain. Fleet sales to sharing and hailing services grow. The mix shifts and total volume in rich countries is flat or declining.
What replaces it
A combination. Transit for routine trips, hailing for irregular ones, occasional rental for the weekend away, delivery for shopping. None of these is a car and together they cover what a car did.
The policy dimension
Cities have increasingly made driving less convenient on purpose – congestion charges, reduced parking, low-traffic zones. That accelerates the trend and is contested by people for whom it makes life harder.
Where it does not apply
Anywhere without dense alternatives, which is most of the world’s land area. The decline is a city phenomenon and will remain one until alternatives reach further.