After 2003, Iraq defined the strategic frameworks and general concepts of its foreign policy philosophy with the principle of balance in its relations with Arab, regional and Western countries, which are based on the constitutional path that referred to establishing relations on the basis of common interests through which international laws are observed and not to be a platform of hostility to its neighbors to threaten its national security. .
However, the principle of balance that the Iraqi governments adhered to turned into one of the most important problems for Iraq and its political system, as the application of this principle was subject to contrary determinants that countries seeking stability and interaction in their relations did not work on, so the principle was formulated with each government based on the vision of the person responsible for implementing public policy and his partisan incubator. And its orientations, which may be subject to ideological, national, or even leadership considerations, which made Iraq's foreign policy lose its compass and hesitant, which made Iraq a theater of conflicts and proxy war and an arena for settling scores of conflicting parties in the region. There is a deterrent diplomatic response by Iraq.
The principle of balance was unable to control and develop Iraq's interests in terms of international relations on the one hand, and its relations with the units of the international political system on the other hand. The political, economic, military, and cultural mechanisms of balance did not produce relations that guarantee Iraq's sovereignty in the Arab, regional, and international environment, in a way that reflects on its security. Internal political and economic stability, which requires the adoption of a new principle and strategy based on the philosophy of (guarantor diplomacy), whose path can be drawn according to the constants of respect for sovereignty and non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries as a cornerstone in establishing any bilateral relationship, and for the purpose of shifting towards this new principle of diplomacy. There must be faith from the Iraqi decision-maker responsible for foreign policy in this transformation, and then determine the priorities and countries closest to Iraq and the common denominators between it and them, and look at the real positions of any country towards Iraq with which it is intended to adopt the guarantor relations with it and the level of its political, diplomatic, economic and security effectiveness, so the concept of the guarantor state It was raised about the limits of formulating the relationship between the state, the individual, and society on the basis of rights, duties, obedience, and security, but with the nature of international changes, the emergence of new centers of power, and the need for other countries to build a relationship based on mutual trust in foreign policy, the concept of guarantee transcends its internal function to include its external relations with a second country, including It secures its political, economic, security and diplomatic stability.
The great transformation brought about by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia by changing the balance of power in the Middle East region and drawing new lines for the interests of the major countries in the Arab Gulf region and its rise to the level of the active states in international decision-making, as well as its transformation into an economic, financial and investment focal point, makes it imperative for those responsible for drawing public policies in Iraq to take This is in consideration and building a different path in the relationship with Riyadh according to the principle of guarantor diplomacy, after all the positive stances of the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman bin Abdulaziz towards Iraq, its people and its sovereignty, in a way that achieves for Baghdad an Arab ally and a state that guarantees its sovereignty and economy and unifies its diplomatic positions with the nature of international developments, Saudi Arabia , one of the major countries regionally, and the gateway to the Arab system in general and the Gulf in particular, and a global window through which Iraq can overlook, taking into account its religious position in the Islamic world, in addition to the diplomatic successes achieved by Saudi Arabia in the multiplicity of international partners such as China and Russia and its accession to the Shanghai Organization, and packages of initiatives Diplomacy to solve the crises of the region, and its adoption of the philosophy of peace and partnership with the aim of cooling the region and the resulting Saudi acceptance of the Iranian enthusiasm for the restoration of relations between them.
By turning Iraq to adopting the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia as a guarantor country, it will find it among the twenty largest economies in the world, in terms of economic size, and the largest economy in the Arab world and occupy first place in the Middle East and North Africa region, in addition to being a permanent member and leader of OPEC countries, and it is a permanent member of a group of countries The Group of Twenty, a quick look at the financial figures announced by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for its budget and surplus, indicates the ability of its economy to grow and stabilize, as it recorded in 2022 the first surplus in the general budget in nearly a decade, exceeding its expectations in a year that witnessed global economic difficulties and a rise in Oil prices The surplus amounted to about 27 billion dollars, according to the Saudi Ministry of Finance. The economic data comes at a time when the world is facing widespread shocks in energy prices and resources and fears of a deep recession. The Kingdom also announced the 2023 budget with total expenditures amounting to $297 billion. According to the data, GDP is expected to grow by 8.5% this year, with a focus on the aspect of Internal investment and what it produced over three years by providing 500,000 jobs, and until 2030 it will provide 1.8 million jobs, in addition to the remarkable success in external investment.
Therefore, the establishment of a commercial – financial – investment relationship between Baghdad and Riyadh will be a guarantee for the Iraqi economy and a lever for its chronic crises, as a result of unequal external economic relations and internal mismanagement of growing resources.
Talking about Saudi Arabia at this time leads to what was proposed by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of the integrated Vision 2030, which is a strategic framework designed to reduce dependence on oil and diversify the national economy and also aims to strengthen and transform Saudi society into a vibrant society at all levels. In order to achieve the goals of the vision, a series of giant projects have been launched, most notably the NEOM project, which is the start of change that will embody the future of innovation in business, living and sustainability, as well as empowering the private sector and strengthening the role of the Investment Fund, developing a diversified and effective financial sector, and the National Industry and Logistics Development Program, which aims to transform The Kingdom has become a leading industrial power and a global logistical platform by maximizing the value achieved from the mining and energy sectors. This vision is an indication of the level of progress that the Kingdom awaits in all fields, which necessitates Iraq to join and quickly build a relationship in a manner that achieves the advancement of all its sectors.
With Prime Minister Muhammad al-Sudani preparing to visit the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in May, it may be important for him to put in his priorities the shift in the course of the relationship between Baghdad and Riyadh in accordance with the extent of awareness of the Saudi geopolitical role and economic weight in the world, and this is represented by transferring the relationship to the principle of (the state The guarantor) and work on the actual translation of the outputs of the Iraqi-Saudi Coordination Council and the activation of all previous agreements concluded by Iraq since 2017, as a solid base for this transformation. This transformation of the guarantor relationship is stimulated by Saudi Arabia’s endeavor to open up to Iraq, the state and people, in a way that enhances the security and stability of Iraq, especially since the Iraqi Prime Minister had indicated the willingness of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to invest in Iraq with nearly 100 billion dollars, which Iraq has not witnessed in its contemporary history. With this desire and this number for foreign investment, the Saudi-Iranian agreement will also encourage Baghdad to move towards guarantor diplomacy with Riyadh in accordance with the positive repercussions of this agreement on Iraq.
For all of the foregoing, the matter depends on the current Iraqi decision-maker not to respond to any opinion or political-partisan pressure outside the country's supreme interest, which has caused mishandling by most Iraqi governments of Saudi approaches. The current stage in foreign policy for Iraq is an opportunity that will not be repeated.
Ihsan Al-Shammari
