The American “Stratfor” Center for Strategic and Security Studies predicted four scenarios for the Sudan war, as it is likely that the battles will continue in the large cities, with the confrontations between the army and the Rapid Support Forces entering its second week. The center did not rule out that the intense fighting would continue in the main cities, despite its temporary cessation in the coming days to allow the evacuation of foreign nationals.
He stated in his report that the situation in Khartoum, Omdurman and other cities across the country remains volatile and developing rapidly, prompting foreign governments and humanitarian organizations to prepare for many possible scenarios in the coming days and weeks.
According to the American Center, the most likely scenario is the continuation of intense urban warfare, although the increasing pressure from international, regional and other parties may lead to a short halt to the evacuation, pointing out that the fighting may develop in the coming weeks in the form of four scenarios:
The first, most likely scenario is that the armed forces and the RSF agree to a periodic ceasefire, but that sporadic fighting will continue in urban centres. However, a permanent or indefinite ceasefire is unlikely, but international pressure to allow the evacuations could prompt one or both warring sides to stop the fighting for a short period.
The report claimed that opposition and divisions within the Sudanese army constitute major constraints even on temporary truces to provide people in combat zones with humanitarian supplies and medical care, as they call for a complete victory over the RSF.
As for the second scenario, it is represented by the continuation of violent fighting in cities without a cease-fire, "in light of the relatively equal capabilities of the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces in terms of the number of personnel and equipment."
However, there is a danger that countries in the region may begin to provide their "preferred side" in the conflict with money, weapons and other forms of military support.
According to Stratfor, the RSF is already receiving support, which is likely to prolong the fighting in Khartoum.
With regard to the third scenario, which the report describes as somewhat likely, it is that one of the two parties defeats the other, forcing the latter to seek refuge in rural areas in remote parts of the country.
It concludes with the fourth scenario, which is an unlikely possibility, according to the assessment, that the army and the Rapid Support Forces agree to a permanent ceasefire, but the risk of future violence still exists. In the American Center's opinion, there is still a chance, albeit a very small one, that international pressures, especially Arab ones, will give way to an unlimited ceasefire between the warring parties.
Okaz (Washington, Jeddah) @okaz_online
