As the battles continue between the Sudanese army forces and the Rapid Support Forces, observers fear that the current conflict will turn into a long-term civil war, amid fears of a repeat of the Libyan scenario, which threatens the stability of the region and the Horn of Africa. In this context, Professor of Political Science at Cairo University, Dr. Naglaa Merhi, warned that the escalation of armed clashes between the two military components in Sudan arouses fear and anticipation on the Arab and international levels, as the country is now living in the zero point phase or the “point of no return.” reality. She pointed out that what is happening in Sudan now is expected as a result of the ruling military council's failure to form a civilian government, and the failure of the army and support technical committees to agree, which has exacerbated the internal crisis.
She added to Okaz: The differences between the civilian component have moved to the military component, which is a dangerous matter, especially since every military force seeks to support the civilian side that agrees with it politically, noting that the current course of the military operation is what will determine the political course in the future.
The Egyptian expert expected several scenarios for the Sudanese crisis, including calm, which is the most optimistic scenario and may depend on international and regional mediation, which leads to a cease-fire at some stage, and the second scenario is that the army forces decide the battle in their favour, while the third scenario is the continuation of the fighting and its expansion, which brings Sudan into conflict. A new civil war.
And she stressed that there is a consensus to reject any external interference in the Sudanese crisis, especially by the army, but if it continues, some external parties will intervene, even if I tend to involve the Sudanese wise people, to avoid entering the country into a serious crisis, especially since the country suffers from a political situation It has been complicated since the overthrow of Al-Bashir in 2019, pointing out that there are Western countries that have interests in Sudan, and there are mutual visits.
For his part, the expert in African affairs, Dr. Rami Zuhdi, suggested that the Sudanese crisis would develop into a worse one, especially since the period of government in Sudan went through many crises, and the state fought many internal wars, which affected it politically and economically, and therefore we are facing several scenarios, all of which may be bad.
Among the expected scenarios is the Sudanese forces achieving a decisive victory and eliminating the other side, after which it is possible to talk about a political process with the rest of the political components.
Zuhdi spoke to "Okaz" about another scenario, which is the steadfastness of the Rapid Support Forces and the prolongation of the war in the country, and pointed out that the scenario of Arab, international or African mediation cannot achieve anything at the present time, except after a change occurs on the ground in favor of one of the parties, even if The mediation that took place in light of the burning situation will be temporary, and confrontations will soon return. He believed that the situation in Sudan is facing a more difficult Libyan scenario, especially on the humanitarian level, and we will witness displacement and a human tragedy.
Mohamed Hefny (Cairo) @okaz_online
