As if the region is marked by fighting and the continuation of the state of boiling, as soon as one crisis ends, another erupts, and as soon as the sound of gunshots stops in one country, the fighting resumes in another country. To the Arab world, and the imminent return to the League of Arab States, and the second: penetrating the Yemeni file by completing one of the largest exchange deals of prisoners and detainees between the legitimate government and the Houthis, amid news of the imminent reaching of a new truce in Yemen. Before all of this, the agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran was to resume diplomatic relations and reopen embassies and consular representations between the two countries, which was met with regional and international satisfaction and welcome.
Amidst this optimistic and festive atmosphere, the political and popular circles were surprised by the outbreak of war between the two wings of the military component in Sudan, led by the commander of the army forces, Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, and the commander of the Rapid Support Forces, Muhammad Hamdan Daglo, “Hamidti”, on the background of the latter’s refusal to merge his forces with the Sudanese armed forces in accordance with the declared understandings and agreements. Which was supposed to lead Sudan to the return of civilian rule.
Thus, disputes over the timelines for integrating the "rapid support" into the army forces wracked the announced and previously set timetables, which ended up blowing up the date for signing the final agreement between the political forces and the military component, which was scheduled for the first week of this April. However, the escalation, which reached the point of fighting and which some considered surprising, was expected, and it may be the only surprise in its timing during the last ten days of the blessed month of Ramadan, against the backdrop of the sharp divergence of views between Al-Burhan and Hamidti.
The dispute between the two men lies over the Sudanese army’s adherence to merging the RSF elements within a period of two years, while Hamidti and the support leaders want to postpone the move for 10 years, which sparked the battle between the two parties, which the British newspaper “The Guardian” considered as a “struggle of two generals” over the area of control. and acquisition, despite what seemed to be a close relationship between them.
It is true that many were expecting a clash between "Hemedti and Al-Burhan", but the violent outbreak of fighting at the beginning of this week, and the speed with which it spread to several regions in Sudan, especially the triangle capital, was horrific and frightening, and even turned into a war in which heavy and medium weapons were used.
Perhaps what is striking about the first week of the war so far is the statements of the two men, as they consider
Their battle is a matter of "life or death", which makes it difficult to return to the political negotiating track, especially after the army declared that "quick integration" is a rebel militia, that there is no dialogue with it, and that what is required is submission and surrender.
On this basis, the likely scenarios for a solution and reaching a truce seem so far far fetched, against the background of the failure of the two previous “truces” to hold, but there is still hope in trying to contain the crisis through more international and regional pressure, leading to a long truce under international supervision. Hoping to change the positions of the two parties and accept consensual solutions to save Sudan and the Sudanese from the danger of sliding towards a civil war, which may last for years and years, in a country suffering from major economic and living crises.
Muhammad Fikri (Jeddah) @mohamed02613928